Russian strikes have surged since Donald Trump’s return

Russia has increased its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, according to figures by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Washington, D.C., think tank’s daily tallies of Russian strikes against targets in Ukraine this year show a surge of attacks since Trump’s inauguration in January. The figures come amid further attacks on several regions in Ukraine on Friday and Saturday.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

Why It Matters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that work was underway with the Trump administration to accelerate peace negotiations.

Citing data showing Russia’s increased drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, George Barros, who leads ISW’s Russia team and geospatial intelligence team, said on X, formerly Twitter, that Moscow, not Kyiv, was “the obstacle to peace.”

What To Know

In its Friday update, the ISW presented data that showed the number of Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the year.

In the first three weeks of 2024, the figure ranged from 110 to 120. On January 21, Trump’s first full day back in the Oval Office, it hit 150.

In the six weeks since, there have been about two dozen days when the attacks were fewer than 150. There has also been a gradual spike in Russian attacks on Ukraine, peaking at 270 on February 23, which the ISW noted occurred a week after a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The think tank also noted that the talks between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia also presaged an increase in Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine. On Friday, the attacks reached about 260.

On Friday night, further Russian drone attacks killed civilians and damaged buildings and infrastructure across Ukraine.

At least 11 people were killed and 30 injured in Russian attacks on the city of Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast on Friday, according to Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin, who said more people could be trapped under the rubble. Some eight apartment buildings have been damaged, the official statement said.

The region has declared a day of mourning in response to the attack, which was “one of the most brutal in recent times,” Filashkin said.

Additionally, at least three people died and seven were injured in a drone attack on a civilian business in the city of Bohodukhiv in Kharkiv Oblast around 2 a.m. on Saturday morning.

Further south, falling drone debris sparked a large fire in the city of Zaporizhzhia overnight on Friday. A large-scale drone attack on Odesa hit an industrial building and petrol station, according to the region’s military administration.

What People Are Saying

ISW’s George Barros wrote on X: “Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace. This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated. Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes. Russia has offered zero.”

International Crisis Group, a nonprofit that works to prevent wars, said in a statement: “The present U.S. administration, like its predecessor, is and will remain unwilling to offer Ukraine the security guarantees it seeks in a peace settlement with Russia. Kyiv and its European backers have no viable choice but to stop pushing at a closed door and instead seek what consensus is possible with Washington on another path to assure Ukraine’s long-term security.”

What Happens Next

In the aftermath of a White House clash between Zelensky and Trump on February 28, the Ukrainian president said delegations from Washington and Kyiv were preparing to meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days, with peace and security on the agenda.