Asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses significant threat to Earth in 2032, NASA’s latest analysis determines

A so-called “city killer” asteroid scientists have been monitoring after discovering it had a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032 “no longer poses a significant threat,” NASA said in its latest analysis.

The 2024 YR4 asteroid, which is nearly the size of a football field, now has roughly a 0.004% chance of hitting Earth in about eight years, according to the space agency’s latest calculations. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies previously projected a 3% chance of the asteroid striking our planet before lowering the chance to 0.28% last week.

NASA said the changes are due to continued observations of the asteroid that allow experts to “calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory.” There’s now no significant potential for this particular asteroid to impact Earth for the next century, the agency added.

“The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth,” NASA said.

The Moon, however, could be in 2024 YR4 asteroid’s path. NASA’s latest numbers show there’s a 1.7% probability that it could impact the Moon.

The asteroid was first spotted on Dec. 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Based on its brightness, astronomers estimate it is between 130 and 300 feet wide.

Meanwhile, NASA continues to monitor other potential asteroid threats through Sentry, its automated collision monitoring system that scans the most current asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next century.